Use the tier break—not only the next name.
In one-QB leagues, compare the elite ceiling against a deep replacement pool and stream favorable weekly matchups when the gap is small.
Quarterback rankings that price role, range, and replacement value.
Passing volume, rushing production, offensive environment, availability, and touchdown regression drive the quarterback model.
FULL RANKINGS
Full-PPR median projection · Stats through Week 5 · Updated Oct 152026 QB rankings
QB RKPLAYEROVRLEVELPROJ.RANGECONF.
QB1Josh AllenBUF · 16.3 expected games#20LEVEL 4377291–46273%
QB2Patrick MahomesKC · 16.1 expected games#49LEVEL 5313243–38374%
QB3Caleb WilliamsCHI · 16.4 expected games#55LEVEL 5307226–38864%
QB4Jared GoffDET · 16.4 expected games#56LEVEL 6307239–37475%
QB5Lamar JacksonBAL · 16 expected games#59LEVEL 6306238–37375%
QB6Brock PurdySF · 15.6 expected games#63LEVEL 6300234–36675%
QB7Drake MayeNE · 16.2 expected games#71LEVEL 6295225–36670%
QB8Jayden DanielsWAS · 15.5 expected games#74LEVEL 6293223–36470%
QB9Jalen HurtsPHI · 16.2 expected games#75LEVEL 6291228–35476%
QB10Dak PrescottDAL · 16 expected games#83LEVEL 6284221–34675%
QB11Joe BurrowCIN · 15.6 expected games#85LEVEL 6282221–34376%
QB12Trevor LawrenceJAX · 16.1 expected games#87LEVEL 6281218–34474%
QB13Bo NixDEN · 16.4 expected games#97LEVEL 6277215–33874%
QB14Matthew StaffordLA · 16.4 expected games#98LEVEL 6276212–34072%
QB15Baker MayfieldTB · 16.4 expected games#106LEVEL 6268211–32676%
QB16Jordan LoveGB · 16.2 expected games#115LEVEL 6263207–32076%
QB17Justin HerbertLAC · 16.3 expected games#118LEVEL 6261207–31678%
QB18Bryce YoungCAR · 16.2 expected games#123LEVEL 6258199–31673%
QB19C.J. StroudHOU · 16.1 expected games#127LEVEL 6257201–31276%
QB20Tyler ShoughNO · 15.6 expected games#141LEVEL 6243184–30269%
QB21Sam DarnoldSEA · 16.4 expected games#151LEVEL 6238181–29570%
QB22Kyler MurrayMIN · 15.3 expected games#152LEVEL 6236182–29073%
QB23Daniel JonesIND · 15.8 expected games#153LEVEL 6235186–28478%
QB24Aaron RodgersPIT · 16.3 expected games#154LEVEL 6235182–28774%
QB25Jacoby BrissettARI · 15.7 expected games#158LEVEL 6230178–28174%
QB26Geno SmithNYJ · 16.2 expected games#167LEVEL 6222172–27174%
QB27Deshaun WatsonCLE · 15 expected games#170LEVEL 6219169–27073%
QB28Cam WardTEN · 16.2 expected games#203LEVEL 6205157–25371%
QB29Michael Penix Jr.ATL · 15.2 expected games#205LEVEL 6205160–25075%
QB30Kirk CousinsLV · 15.7 expected games#209LEVEL 6201158–24576%
QB31Jameis WinstonNYG · 15.3 expected games#217LEVEL 6199149–24967%
QB32Malik WillisMIA · 14.8 expected games#236LEVEL 6189148–23175%
QB33Anthony RichardsonIND · 15.9 expected games#253LEVEL 6151109–19361%
QB34Justin FieldsKC · 15.6 expected games#254LEVEL 6148110–18665%
QB35Drew LockSEA · 14.8 expected games#255LEVEL 612994–16462%
QB36Carson WentzMIN · 14.7 expected games#256LEVEL 612993–16561%
QB37Marcus MariotaWAS · 15.4 expected games#257LEVEL 612289–15662%
QB38Joe FlaccoCIN · 16 expected games#258LEVEL 611786–14765%
QB39Spencer RattlerNO · 15.5 expected games#259LEVEL 611384–14365%
QB40Tua TagovailoaATL · 15.9 expected games#260LEVEL 610882–13568%
Projection and positional value are separate.
The median estimates scoring. Lineup Level, confidence, projection range, and value over replacement describe how much that production helps your lineup.
ALL QB PROFILES · FREE
Take the complete model into every week.
Open the season toolkit →The complete player pool, weekly matchups, Start/Sit, waivers, trades, and ESPN roster tools.
Independent projections based on nflverse / FTN Data under CC BY-SA 4.0. Rankings are estimates, not guarantees, and are not affiliated with the NFL or ESPN.